The swing against the Greens could be the story from the Legislative Council elections for the seat of Derwent nobody wants to mention, except it is a gross over simplification, just like the real story. Media, politicians, and even a respected political analyst apply their own spin to the weekend’s elections for seats in Tasmania’s upper house of Parliament, particularly the seat of Derwent.

State Government Treasurer Michael Aird

With the current State Government Treasurer Michael Aird’s seat in parliament, Derwent, up for grabs, there is considerable media interest in this election and the results. Many seemed to interpret results based on their own prejudices with simplistic analysis saying more about the commentators own political agenda, rather than the complex factors influencing the election results.

The Mercury had a large headline for the story in Monday’s edition “Labor put on notice”, with a sub heading suggesting a political analyst thought there was a serious swing against Labor in the results. At first glance, this appears to be the case with Mr. Aird’s primary vote dropping from 77.28% at the last election, down to 51.6% on Saturday. The pundits have taken this change and tried to apply it to the overall political landscape. They rely on the logic that Mr Aird is a member of the Labor Government, so any drop in his vote at this election is a reflection on the performance of the Government and its likely chances of victory in the next election for the other house of Parliament, the House of Assembly, ignoring important differences between the two houses.

The Legislative Council’s role is to review legislation from the lower House of Assembly where the government of the day sits. Elections are staggered so each year only one or two of the seats in the house becomes vacant and the electorates have different boundaries to those used for the house of assembly elections. These are elections are conducted without the looming spectre of choosing a government and elections are usually fought on local issues with personality and local profiles of the candidates often key factors in success. This tends to produce a chamber of Parliament composed mainly of members without formal party affiliations who are not bound by party decisions on policy or voting.

As an endorsed Labor Party candidate, and a successful one, Mr. Aird is an exception to the normal case. This questions how much of his support is party based, and how much is due to his own personal profile.

Another factor ignored is the number of candidates at the elections. Unlike the lower house, where the major parties run a full field of candidates in all elections, it is mainly individuals contesting Legislative council seats and the numbers vary. At the 2003 election, there were only two candidates, Mr. Aird and an endorsed Greens’ hopeful, leaving little choice for voters

This election saw a third candidate, Jennifer Branch, with a high profile well known in the electorate as State President of the Parents and Friends Association, indicating her involvement with local schools as well as a member of the Glenorchy City Council, and a rising Liberal party star. These achievements lend Ms Branch an air of competency in the role of an elected representative. Clearly, Ms Branch is a formidable political opponent so it is not surprising she attracted a strong following at the ballot box.

To look at more representative picture of the results we need to look at the 1997 election as this is the most recent occasion where Mr Aird faced two opponents in Derwent.

In 1997, Mr Aird secured 57.54% of the primary vote with the other two candidates receiving 25.84% and 16.62%. Comparing these to Saturday’s results suggests not a lot has really changes, Mr Aird’s primary vote dropped a few percentage points, certainly not a dramatic change. The Greens primary vote seems to be reasonably consistent going from 16.62% down to 14.95%, once again only a small drop when there is a three-candidate election.

Voters do not give reasons as they indicate their choices in the polling booth, but some credit should go to Ms Branch as an excellent candidate for the result in an electoral climate where personalities are more important than party affiliations.